College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Mountain West win total

The betting market has weighed in emphatically on which team is likeliest to win the Mountain West over the last few weeks, and it’s not the hometown favorites in the capital of the sports betting world.

UNLV and New Mexico opened as virtual co-favorites earlier this summer with odds actually slanted a bit more toward the former. Circa Sports had UNLV at +290 (i.e., risking $100 to win $290) at the start of July with New Mexico at +305.

Since then, New Mexico has shot down to +270 with UNLV rising to +320.

The Lobos won six in a row at the end of last regular season, including a 40-35 win at UNLV as 3.5-point underdogs, to tie for the best record in the conference with Boise State, San Diego State and the Rebels themselves.

UNLV and New Mexico won’t have to contend with the first two this year, as they shipped off to the Pac-12 along with Fresno State, Colorado State and Utah State.

The defections should hypothetically help pave the way for UNLV or New Mexico to win their first conference championship in decades. The Rebels haven’t raised a conference-title trophy since the 1994 Big West, while the Lobos’ drought dates  to the 1964 WAC.

Despite New Mexico being the choice du jour to win the Mountain West, UNLV’s odds to reach the College Football Playoff remain much shorter — 10-to-1 at Caesars/William Hill compared to 20-to-1 for the former.

That may seem counterintuitive, but it illustrates UNLV having higher upside if everything clicks as well as a stronger possibility at an undefeated season. New Mexico has a nonconference game at Oklahoma, while UNLV’s pre-Mountain West tilts all look more winnable.

Last year’s results picking every win total weren’t as profitable in the Mountain West as the SEC, but stronger overall. I went 8-4 handicapping every win total in the conference, though just 2-2 on plays to go with 4-2 on leans and 2-0 on guesses.

Read below for analysis and a pick on every Mountain West win total this season with picks labeled in one of the three aforementioned confidence categories. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side with the sportsbook noted. Check back over the next three weeks for three more parts of this series.

Air Force (over/under 6.5 wins)

The Falcons ranked second-to-last in the nation last year defensively, giving up a miserable 7.4 yards per play. They’ll almost certainly improve drastically this season, not only because there’s no further to fall but also because they’re third in the nation in returning production on defense. Air Force’s defensive line specifically emerged at the end of last season, and it should be one of the better teams in the new-look conference in the trenches. It’s more commonly lined with a win total of over/under 7.5 wins around pick’em, but mathematically playing the much higher price a whole win lower is more valuable.

Lean: Over 6.5 wins -190 (Boomer’s)

Hawaii (over/under 7.5 wins)

Former Bishop Gorman star Micah Alejado was as spectacular as advertised at quarterback last season, easily pulling out my best bet on the over/under 5.5 wins. But now the ask is significantly raised with Alejado arguably stuck with a weaker team around him. The Warriors only have three other returning starters on offense and look particularly thin at wide receiver. The undersized Alejado also takes a lot of hits, leaving injury a constant concern, especially after he spent all last season banged up and missed spring practice.

Play: Under 7.5 wins -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

New Mexico (over/under 8.5 wins)

New Mexico will have to put together its best season in 29 years to go over this win total. It’s possible, especially with second-year coach Jason Eck displaying prowess in every area a year ago. The Lobos bring back more returners than anyone in the conference, but there are questions in the skill positions and on the defensive line. They should contend again, but it’s no guarantee that the momentum from the hot streak to end last season carries over. The market is pricing it as all but a certainty.

Lean: Under 8.5 wins -135 (Circa)

Northern Illinois (over/under 3.5 wins)

It’s ironic that the Mountain West went far out of its usual footprint to woo Northern Illinois because of its football reputation despite this year’s team looking like one of its worst in decades. The Huskies are down to an interim coach, Rob Harley, and makeshift roster after former head coach Thomas Hammock left to become an assistant with the Seattle Seahawks in the offseason. The line being so low makes it tough, but this is one of the worst teams on the top level of college football on paper.

Lean: Under 3.5 wins -115 (South Point)

North Dakota State (over/under 8.5 wins)

Last year’s version of the Bison, which started 12-0 before suffering a shocking upset to Illinois State in the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs, would be the runaway favorite to win this conference. But the team is going to look a lot different this year with the loss of most of the stars from that group, and the question becomes whether they can maintain the program’s consistency moving up a level. The Mountain West looks like a soft landing spot; it’s hard to doubt the Bison though the asking price is steep.

Guess: Over 8.5 wins -150 (South Point)

San Jose State (over/under 4.5 wins)

The Spartans’ quarterback competition is primarily between a former Hawaii backup, Luke Weaver, and a former UCLA redshirt, Robert McDaniel. It doesn’t appear that they have an ideal candidate to run Ken Niumatalolo’s pass-happy run-and-shoot scheme. Meanwhile, the defense grades out as potentially the worst in the conference from a talent perspective.

Lean: Under 4.5 wins +120 (Boomer’s)

UNLV (over/under 7.5 wins)

Much like Air Force, UNLV’s win total is more widespread as over/under 8.5 wins with plus-money on the upside. But pay the premium to get over 7.5 at BetMGM or Boomer’s because 8-4 might be its likeliest landing spot. It’s difficult to get too jazzed on UNLV with a reclamation-project quarterback, Jackson Arnold, and a defense that looks spotty at best, a unit that couldn’t get to respectable levels last season despite leading the league in turnover luck. But the talent on the roster is stronger than anyone else in the league, which could help the Rebels overwhelm opponents.

Guess: Over 7.5 wins -185 (BetMGM)

UNR (over/under 4.5 wins)

In contrast to the Scarlet and Gray, the Blue and Silver sat last in the Mountain West last year in turnover luck. The Wolf Pack also went 1-4 in games decided by less than a touchdown. Those are just two factors that pointed to them being more competent than their 3-9 straight-up record let on. They might have been destined to remain a bottom-feeder in the old Mountain West but, with the realignment, look like they could be a tier above the true dregs of Northern Illinois, San Jose State and UTEP.

Lean: Over 4.5 wins +110 (STN)

UTEP (over/under 7.5 wins)

Here’s another program that doesn’t arrive in the Mountain West on the best trajectory. Coach Scotty Walden is reportedly fighting for his job after going a combined 5-19 his first two seasons in Conference USA, which is even weaker than the current Mountain West. The roster doesn’t appear upgraded in any significant way and the Miners’ strength of schedule stands out as the toughest in the conference — largely because of sacrificial-lamb nonconference tilts at Oklahoma and Michigan.

Guess: Under 3.5 wins -130 (South Point)

Wyoming (over/under 5.5 wins)

No team in the conference carries wider variance going into the season than Wyoming. The Cowboys might be worth a sprinkle at 22-to-1 to win the Mountain West if offensive coordinator Christian Taylor, who comes over from the Buffalo Bills where he served as an offensive adviser, can modernize the attack. But if Taylor can’t deliver and Wyoming falls into its usual archaic brand of football, the downside is just as large. Bet on the potential in a conference that doesn’t look very intimidating.

Play: Over 5.5 wins -110 (BetMGM)